Morgan Housel remains one of my favourite authors who write these interesting articles, and these are thought-provoking. His latest article that hit you in the face and makes you think is called Keep Running. Click on the content card below to read the article in full and feel free to subscribe to his writings.
Leigh Van Valen was a crazy-looking evolutionary biologist who came up with a theory so crazy no academic journal would publish it. So he created his own journal, published it, and the idea eventually became accepted wisdom. Those kinds of ideas – counterintuitive, but ultimately true – are the ones worth paying most attention to, because they’re easiest to overlook. What’s true in one field is likely true in others. Lucky for us, Van Valen’s theory of evolution applies to business and investing. For decades, scientists assumed that the longer a species had been around the more likely it was…
Below are a couple of important takeaways
- Ideas that are counterintuitive, but ultimately true, are the ones worth paying most attention to because they’re easiest to overlook.
- among groups of species, the probability of extinction was roughly the same whether it was 10,000 years old or 10 million years old.
- some advantages create new disadvantages. Most species tend to get bigger over time because big things are strong. But being big also makes you slow, clumsy, and unable to hide. “The tendency for evolution to create larger species is counterbalanced by the tendency of extinction to kill off larger species,” one study wrote.
- Evolution is the study of advantages. Van Valen’s idea is simply that there are no permanent advantages.