The seduction of safety is always more dangerous than the illusion of uncertaintyRobin Sharma
We live in a world where the medium of exchange is fiat. It may be a suitable medium of exchange; however, it is not a store of value.
My understanding of Bitcoin is based on what I learnt through The Investors Podcast, The Bitcoin Standard and a couple of articles written by Robert Breedlove.
The Book of Satoshi is an excellent attempt to bring together all the writings of Satoshi as he launched Bitcoin and his defence of the concepts he presented to its early adopters and contributors.
This is a must-read book for anyone who wants to know more about the mind of its creator.
This is a fantastic book. An easy read about how with the help of techniques mentioned in this boo,k one can improve their way of thinking.
Personally speaking, this is one of my favourites and is part of the book which I will have to revisit every so often. The others being The 7 habits of highly effective people by Stephen Covey and How to win friends and influence people by Dale Carnegie.
Although it is an easy read, what the authors ask of you is counterintuitive, and hence the book will need re-reads and the techniques described will require practice before you see any results.
This video was made in 2018. However, the topic covered is timeless. In the world of fiat currency, how do you bring back sanity and price stability? Why is it essential to have a currency backed by a real asset? The content and the medium used to present the data both are equally mind-blowing. Grant’s delivery is eloquent, and the story he tells is mesmerising. A must watch and one of my favourite videos of all time.
This is an interesting clip.
What is the secret to write and keep doing it consistently?
The answer is simple, discipline!
I agree with George, too many distractions, and at times I question if I can write at all!
I am a little worried. The lockdown and how we come out of it bothers me. I was not so aware or financially literate in 2008 to understand what was going on in the economy. It was a missed opportunity to learn. Things have changed since. I have studied for over 4 years now various topics on investing and economics.
To protect ourselves from Covid-19, we had to go into the lockdown; to save lives and here in the UK to avoid overwhelming the NHS. However, have we paid a more significant price then compared to what we would have if we carried on without the lockdown? I say this because of the redundancies, shop closures, big companies declaring bankruptcies.
Yes, we saved lives and stopped our health system from collapsing, but now all the lives that were saved, are very highly likely to face economic hardships? They will be miserable. There was be poverty. Recession.
I would be glad to be wrong about this! But I am unable to see it any other way. Decisions are never free, and they come with a cost.
The decisions taken so far are correct and the cost we’ll pay is worth it. Or maybe we have got it completely wrong? Time will tell.
You break the law and you get away with it, and some people think you’re smart. You break and unwritten law, you’ll be an outcast.Harold Parrot to Branch Rickey in the movie 42 – The true story of an American legend
Twitter is an incredible source of bite-size information which are mind-blowing and full of wisdom. I came across these fantastic definitions of profit, loyalty and referrals.
Profit is proof that people value your product/service.
Loyalty is proof that people depend on your product/service.
A referral is a proof that you’ve impacted the lives of users through your product/service.
I have edited words like offering and customers.
I have a trading strategy, a simple trend-following strategy, nothing fancy. I wanted to test if this works or not in real markets. The test markets were India. Being in the UK, I get the benefit 1 GBP to >91 Rs.
I funded my cousin’s account with circa £200, and he tries my strategy, follows the rules to the T. Result is a 60% success rate, which is decent. However, being a civil engineer, lockdown all helps him stay at home and focus on the markets; this is not sustainable. Disruptions are many during the lockdown as well. Many telecons to attend and his primary job is the focus.
With limited data, the results are positive. Next step is to see whether I can find someone that can trade full time? I got lucky; I know my brother in law, let’s call him BILL. He’s never managed to earn a decent living, has never held a decent job – maybe he does not like to work under/for anyone, I don’t know. He’s tried trading commodities in the past, circa 2008. He’s lost a lot of money. I do not know which strategy he was using.
Based on all the points mentioned above, I pitch the idea to Bill. He’s excited. He understands his record may not fill me with confidence,e but he’s determined to start from scratch.
I believe in people, I feel everyone deserved a second chance.
To start live trading the following needs to happen
- Open a trading account with my preferred broker
- Paper trade in the background for 30 days
- Keep a record of all the trades made with profit and loss statement along with a short explanation to open and close the trades
I think the plan is simple and does not ask too much. If everything goes to plan, I invest Rs. 50,000 over three months, whatever the profit, is split 50-50.
After four weeks
- The trading account is opened with Bill’s friend’s recommendation of a completely different provider
- Paper trading is complete
- Records are kept of trades only but the explanation is given for opening and closing of these trades. The result are Rs.48,000 gross profit trading 1 lot of Bank Nifty futures.
I am not happy that out of the three points, only 1.5 are achieved. The results, however, are promising, Rs. 24,000 share (50% of Rs. 48,000). Could can assume, maybe greed got the better of me? I do not know. I convince myself that it is OK to proceed even with 50% achievement of agreed goals!
I send the first lot of Rs 20,000. Bill is thankful and promises to uphold my confidence in him. He aims to be a professional trader. After a couple of days, Bill confirms, for him to access futures and options markets, he needs to make 1 equity trade worth Rs.5,000. I ask him to buy and hold shares of ITC, the price of ITC was Rs.195 and with Rs.5,000 he could buy around 25-26 shares. This goal is agreed.
A couple of days pass, Bill reports saying the platform of this new broker is something he’s not familiar with, but he’s asked his friend to make the equity trade. I assume its OK, but I confirm his friend is going to buy ITC. The answer is NO! His friend has bought some other low-risk stock!
I think this is the final nail in the coffin. I pull out of the project.
As a novice trader, I know one has to cut their losses short, and this venture was just that. My objective was to lend a hand to Bill and get him started on a journey which would generate a source of primary income for himself, and I would passively save for my expenses for my trips to India. This was not to be.
As they say, you live, and you learn. The search for a partner to trade in Indian markets continues.
The process remains the same. The outcome however will still be unknown. If the outcome is what I desire then we have hit the jackpot, or else we pick ourselves up again, dust ourselves off and keep on trying!
Morgan Housel remains one of my favourite authors who write these interesting articles, and these are thought-provoking. His latest article that hit you in the face and makes you think is called Keep Running. Click on the content card below to read the article in full and feel free to subscribe to his writings.
Leigh Van Valen was a crazy-looking evolutionary biologist who came up with a theory so crazy no academic journal would publish it. So he created his own journal, published it, and the idea eventually became accepted wisdom. Those kinds of ideas – counterintuitive, but ultimately true – are the ones worth paying most attention to, because they’re easiest to overlook. What’s true in one field is likely true in others. Lucky for us, Van Valen’s theory of evolution applies to business and investing. For decades, scientists assumed that the longer a species had been around the more likely it was…
Below are a couple of important takeaways
- Ideas that are counterintuitive, but ultimately true, are the ones worth paying most attention to because they’re easiest to overlook.
- among groups of species, the probability of extinction was roughly the same whether it was 10,000 years old or 10 million years old.
- some advantages create new disadvantages. Most species tend to get bigger over time because big things are strong. But being big also makes you slow, clumsy, and unable to hide. “The tendency for evolution to create larger species is counterbalanced by the tendency of extinction to kill off larger species,” one study wrote.
- Evolution is the study of advantages. Van Valen’s idea is simply that there are no permanent advantages.